Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2021 Jun 13 0437 UT
Date: 2021 06 13
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
NO EVENT REPORTS.

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density85.4
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.88.1

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 10612
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jun 2021, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Jun 2021 until 14 Jun 2021)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jun 2021 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jun 2021 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jun 2021 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 006
---
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity is low, with only few low B-class flare
reported. We expect such a low level of flaring activity to persist in the
coming hours.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available data during
last 24 hours and the proton flux levels remained at background values.
The greater than 2MeV electron flux is bellow the 1000 pfu threshold, and
we expect it will remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence
is at normal levels and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.
The in situ observations indicate that the magnetic structure that arrived
at about 01:00 UT on June 11 is the slow CME that have departed the Sun
some time on June 06. However, it exact source location is not clear.
The solar wind speed is presently about 360 km/s and the interplanetary
magnetic field magnitude is 8 nT.
The large extension (up to solar equator) of the southern polar coronal
hole crossed central meridian this morning. The solar wind originating from
this coronal hole can be expected at Earth in the early morning of June 15.
During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at the quiet to
unsettled level with one interval of active geomagnetic conditions reported
by NOAA (Kp=4) while local station at Dourbes reported only unsettled
conditions (K=3). The active to unsettled conditions were induced by long
duration interval of the negative Bz component. We expect quiet to active
conditions in the coming hours.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 005, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Jun 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 023
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 077
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021
AK WINGST : 012
ESTIMATED AP : 011
ESTIMATED ISN : 020, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The last remaining numbered region with
spots decayed to plage. A new region of flux was noted rotating around
the NE limb. No CMEs were determined to be Earth-directed with available
imagery, which is limited due to system maintenance issues.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 Jun.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate on 13-15 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced. Total field ranged from 4-9
nT while the Bz component was between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speed
increased from 333 to 460 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle rotated
from the negative to the positive sector after 12/1230 UTC.
---
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be weakly enhanced for the first
half of 13 Jun. A return to nominal levels is expected on 14 Jun. A weak
enhancement from a small, negative polarity CH HSS is likely on 15 Jun.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to a prolonged period of
southward Bz early in the period.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
13 Jun. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 Jun. Unsettled
conditions are again likely on 15 Jun due to the anticipated onset of
influence from a CH HSS.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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