Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2021 Mar 08 1802 UT
Date: 2021 03 08
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
7270 + 0303 0311 0320 G16 5 XRA 1-8A B1.3 1.1E-04 2806

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density76.3
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.75.2

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 10308
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Mar 2021, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Mar 2021 until 10 Mar 2021)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Mar 2021 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Mar 2021 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Mar 2021 10CM FLUX: 079 / AP: 007
---
COMMENT: The X-ray flux remained below C-level.
Active region NOAA 2806 is a simple bipolar region and has been stable.
X-ray flux is expected to remain below C-level.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in
coronagraph data.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked over the 1000 pfu event
threshold during its diurnal maximum and is expected do so again today. The
24h electron fluence was at normal levels but rising and may reach moderate
levels following the continuing enhanced Solar wind conditions.
Solar wind showed the continuation of moderately high speed stream
conditions. Solar wind speed hovered around 500 km/s while total
interplanetary magnetic field was at around 6nT with an unremarkable Bz
component. The magnetic field was directed away from the Sun.
Solar wind conditions are expected to slowly decay over the next days.
Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with a period of
active conditions (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes reaching 4) around
midnight.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled as the high
speed stream slowly decays over the next days.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 07 Mar 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 078
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 015
AK WINGST : 014
ESTIMATED AP : 011
ESTIMATED ISN : 020, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2806 (S31W70, Cro/beta) remained
stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over 08-10 Mar.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 08-09 Mar. A return to peak levels of moderate
levels is expected for 10 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field
strength was between 5-7 nT while Bz was mostly positive with a brief
deflection to -6 nT at 07/1649 UTC. Solar wind speeds were in gradual
decline, starting the period between 500-550 km/s and ending the
reporting between 450-500 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in
the positive solar sector.
---
.Forecast...
The solar wind speed is expected gradually trend towards nominal levels
over 08-09 Mar.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active under waning CH HSS influence.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08-09 Mar
in response to diminishing CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected
on 10 Mar as nominal solar wind condition prevail.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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