Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2020 Jan 21 1047 UT
Date: 2020 01 21
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
NO EVENT REPORTS.

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density71.4
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.69.1

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 00120
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jan 2020, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jan 2020 until 22 Jan 2020)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2020 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2020 10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2020 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 004
---
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels.
On disk signatures of an eruption were observed at around 18:30 UT on Jan
19 from a newly emerged region in the north east of the solar disk, as yet
unnumbered by NOAA. The observed region produced a small flare and coronal
dimming indicating the existence of a possible associated Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME). However, no coronagraph images are currently available to
confirm the existence or direction of the CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at nominal values. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels.
The solar wind speed fluctuated between from 280 km/s to 350 km/s (ACE).
The interplanetary magnetic field (phi angle) was predominantly directed
towards the Sun (negative sector). Bz varied between -3 and +3 nT.
Geomagnetic activity was quiet, with the Kp index (NOAA) and the local k
index (Dourbes) recording values of between 0 and 1. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on Jan 20-22 with possible isolated active
conditions on Jan 20, due to the combined influence from the patchy
negative polarity coronal hole that traversed the central meridian on Jan
16 and the CME that was observed on Jan 14.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jan 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 072
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003
AK WINGST : 001
ESTIMATED AP : 001
ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Analysis of SOHO/Lasco coronagraph imagery
confirms there was no CME associated with the B1/Sf flare and coronal
dimming that occurred at or around 19/1835 UTC. There were no other
significant solar features of note.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 21-23 Jan.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 21 Jan. Moderate to high levels are possible on
22-23 Jan with possible arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Phi angle frequently
varied between positive and negative sectors.
---
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment could become enhanced on 21-22 Jan with the
possible arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Otherwise mostly
quiet conditions are anticipated for the next three days (21-23 Jan).
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels through 22 Jan with possible influence from a weak, negative
polarity CH HSS. An isolated active period (Kp=4) is possible if this
feature becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions can be expected by
23 Jan.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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Flare Links


Energetic Particle Links


Radio Links


CME Links


Solar Wind Links


Geomagnetism Links


Forecaster Center Links


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