Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2020 Apr 01 1017 UT
Date: 2020 04 01
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
NO EVENT REPORTS.

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density69.1
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.69.0

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 00331
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 31 Mar 2020, 1231UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 31 Mar 2020 until 02 Apr 2020)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2020 10CM FLUX: 069 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Apr 2020 10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Apr 2020 10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 001
---
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. No significant
flares have been recorded. A small and as yet unnumbered sunspot region
rotated onto the disk near N30E60. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the
available coronagraphic imagery.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to stay at nominal levels for the next 24 hours. The
greater than 2MeV electron flux was at moderate levels between 12:30UT and
19:00UT. It is expected to become further enhanced over the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed near Earth increased from 420 to 530 km/s at 15:00UT
and then continued to oscillate around 500 km/s (DSCOVR), as a result of
the solar wind associated with the Coronal Hole which began to cross the
Central Meridian on Mar 26. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was
predominantly oriented towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector)
with the magnitude varying between 2 and 8 nT. Bz ranged between -7 and +6
nT.
Active to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) geomagnetic conditions were
registered for the past 24 hours (K Dourbes recorded values 1-5 and NOAA Kp
1-4). Active (K Dourbes = 4) geomagnetic conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours, while Earth continues to be under the influence of the fast
solar wind.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Mar 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 069
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028
AK WINGST : 016
ESTIMATED AP : 016
ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low despite the emergence of a new sunspot
group, Region 2759 (N28E51, Axx/alpha). The region was severely
foreshortened, so a reliable magnetic analysis was not possible;
however, it did appear to be a simple unipolar group with a positive
polarity lead spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
---
.Forecast...
Despite minor development in Region 2759, its persistent magnetic
simplicity and lack of activity leads to expectations of very low solar
activity 1-3 Apr.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
1-3 Apr due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued negative polarity CH
HSS influences. Total IMF strength decreased during the period from a
maximum of 8 nT to 1-2 nT. The Bz component was variable
most of the period, with several periods of prolonged southward
direction and a maximum deviation of -6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged
primarily from 450-530 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
---
.Forecast...
CH HSS influences are anticipated to continue 1-3 Apr, although
progressively weakening each day as the isolated, negative polarity CH
HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position. Minor influences from the
flank of the south polar CH HSS are likely afterwards.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to CH HSS effects.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance of an early active period on 1 Apr due to continuing CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 2-3 Apr in reaction
to continuing, but weakening CH HSS influences.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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