Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2020 Dec 02 1457 UT
Date: 2020 12 02
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
2730 0000 //// 1043 LEA C RSP 114-168 CTM/1
2670 0039 0040 0041 PAL G RBR 245 50000
2680 0044 0045 0046 PAL G RBR 245 50000
2690 0049 0050 0051 PAL G RBR 245 50000
2700 0256 0301 0307 G16 5 XRA 1-8A B6.4 3.9E-04 2790
2710 0411 //// 0411 LEA C RSP 029-059 III/2
2720 0617 0625 0629 G16 5 XRA 1-8A B6.6 3.9E-04 2790
2740 1135 //// 1135 SVI C RSP 025-084 III/1

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density106.5
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.103.5

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 01202
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Dec 2020, 1244UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Dec 2020 until 04 Dec 2020)
SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Dec 2020 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Dec 2020 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Dec 2020 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 029
---
COMMENT: Solar activity was relatively quiet, with only a single C flare
peaking at C1.4 magnitude at 23:20UT from NOAA region 2786.
There are 3 regions on disk of which 2 are classified as beta regions. The
largest is NOAA AR 2786, already on disk for a while, and there is the new
region NOAA AR 2790 that just rotated into view. Both appear relatively
inactive and stable.
Further C flares can be expected. An isolated M flare is possible but has a
low probability (10%).
As reported yesterday, the C1 flare peaking at 7:21UT December 1
originating from NOAA AR 2787 was associated with a dimming and EUV wave
and an associated CME visible in SoHO/LASCO from 7:12UT. While the core of
the CME is clearly not directed directly Earthward, a shock signature can
be seen expanding over the South and there are also faint signatures over
the North. Hence the CME could potentially be claimed to be classified as
partial Halo.
There is a chance for a glancing blow at Earth from this CME. If it occurs,
it is expected from the morning of December 4.
No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.
The greater than 10MeV proton flux seemed to decay but ultimately remained
enhanced reaching to 6pfu. It is not expected to rise much further although
that can not be excluded.
The greater than 2MeV electron flux did not exceed the 1000 pfu alert
threshold during its diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence was at
moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the
next 24 hours. An increasing trend is expected following the recent Solar
wind enhancements.
Solar wind conditions remained enhanced with Solar wind speed above 500
km/s for most of the period. But after 7UT, solar wind speed came to lie in
the more nominal 400-450 km/s regime. The interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude was around a nominal 5nT with a variable and unremarkable North-
South orientation. The phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (towards
the Sun).
There were no signs of possible perturbations associated to the November 29
CME.
Essentially nominal Solar wind conditions are expected with a slight chance
for perturbations from the morning of December 4 onwards associated to the
December 1 CME.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (both local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 0-2).
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet over the next 24 hours,
followed by possibly active conditions or minor geomagnetic storming should
a glancing blow from the December 1 CME occur.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 044, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Dec 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 104
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 005
AK WINGST : 002
ESTIMATED AP : 002
ESTIMATED ISN : 046, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2790 (S22E55, Cao/beta) was
mostly stable, only producing B-level enhancements. Region 2786 (S18W33,
Cko/beta) produced a C1.4 flare at 01/2320 UTC, the largest of the
period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 Dec.
---
Energetic Particles
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced from the southeast limb
event on 29 Nov but remained below the 10 pfu threshold.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 02-04 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) given current, elevated readings.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were somewhat elevated. Solar wind speeds observed
at the ACE satellite ranged from ~400-500 km/s. Total magnetic field
strength and its Bz component were typical of an undisturbed, background
solar wind. Phi was mostly negative.
---
.Forecast...
Near-background levels are anticipated for 02-04 Dec.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
---
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated for the next three days (02-04
Dec) with slightly elevated solar wind speeds.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

Viewers Links


Regions Links


Flare Links


Energetic Particle Links


Radio Links


CME Links


Solar Wind Links


Geomagnetism Links


Forecaster Center Links


Other Links