Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2019 Jul 18 0147 UT
Date: 2019 07 18
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
NO EVENT REPORTS.

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density66.5
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.68.7

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 90717
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jul 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jul 2019 until 19 Jul 2019)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2019 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2019 10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 005
---
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The Sun remains spotless
and no flares have been observed. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections
(CME) were observed over the last 24 hours in the available coronagraph
imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels.
The solar wind speed gradually increased over the period from 370 to a
maximum of around 500 km/s at 07:15 UT (ACE). The Bz varied between -5 and
+4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed away
from the Sun (positive sector). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed, with the Kp index (NOAA) ranging between 0-2 and the local K
index (Dourbes) ranging between 1-3 over the past 24 hours.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected with possible isolated unsettled
intervals.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Jul 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 067
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013
AK WINGST : 006
ESTIMATED AP : 006
ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low with no sunspots present on the visible
disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
---
.Forecast...
The lack of sunspots and active regions leads to an expectation of very
low solar activity to continue 18-20 Jul.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum
flux of 1,640 at 17/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background values.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels 18-19 Jul in response to slightly elevated solar wind
speeds. Decreasing electron flux of normal to moderate levels is
expected on 20 Jul in response to weakening solar wind speeds. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels all three days.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of mildly enhanced solar wind
speed in an otherwise ambient, background-like regime. Total IMF
strength varied primarily from 4 to 6 nT; while the Bz component
underwent mainly weak deviations. Solar wind speed increased early in
the period to 450-500 km/s and decreased to an average of 425 km/s as
the period progressed. The phi angle underwent some early oscillations
between sectors, but settled into a predominantly positive sector by
17/0730 UTC.
---
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain primarily in an
ambient, background like state 18-20 Jul; with a few occasions of slight
enhancements due weak influences from CH HSS proximity.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain primarily quiet, with a
chance for occasional unsettled conditions 18-20 Jul in response to any
enhancements in the solar wind.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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Energetic Particle Links


Radio Links


CME Links


Solar Wind Links


Geomagnetism Links


Forecaster Center Links


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