Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2019 May 20 1532 UT
Date: 2019 05 20
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
NO EVENT REPORTS.

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density68.0
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.69.6

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 90520
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 May 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 May 2019 until 22 May 2019)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 May 2019 10CM FLUX: 066 / AP: 010
---
COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed has fluctuated between 350 and 415 km/s over the past
24 hours. The total magnetic field strength fluctuated around 6 nT for the
first part of the period and then slowly increased to a maximum of around 9
nT at around 7:00 UT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging
between -6.3 and +7.7 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-3 (NOAA) and local K index
0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels
are expected to continue. Some isolated active intervals are also possible,
due to the expected arrival of a weak solar wind stream associated with a
recurring, negative polarity equatorial coronal hole which traversed the
central meridian on 18 May.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 May 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 068
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : 004
ESTIMATED AP : 003
ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 20-22 May.
---
Energetic Particles
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 20 May with high flux levels possible on 21-22 May in
response to recurrent CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
weak enhancements. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-9 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT.
Solar wind speeds were mostly between 350-400 km/s. Phi angle was
predominantly positive.
---
.Forecast...
Weak enhancements in the solar wind are anticipated in response to
multiple recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs over 20-22 May.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the forecast period (20-22 May) due to the anticipated
influence of multiple recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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Radio Links


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