Lite Forecasting Guide (No Big Movies)


Solar Disk Observations Section

Latest AIA Observations

Below shows the Latest HMI-B image (Top Image), Latest AIA 304Å image (Middle Image), and latest AIA 193Å image (Bottom Image). Data courtesy of the SDO/AIA/HMI mission teams, NASA.

HMIB


AIA_304


AIA_193

CMEs Section

CACTUS

Below shows the latest CME detections, courtesy of the CACTus CME catalog, generated and maintained by the SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Cactus detections

Flare Observations Section

GOES 3 Day Flux

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Goes 3-day Plot

Latest GOES Flare Data

Below shows the latest GOES x-ray flare detections, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

Created: 2019 Sep 20 1307 UT
Date: 2019 09 20
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
NO EVENT REPORTS.

Proton Observations Section

GOES Proton Flux

Below shows the latest GOES Proton flux measurments, courtesy of the GOES mission team, SWPC/NOAA.

3 Day Proton flux

F10.7 - Radio Indexes Section

DRAO Flux

Below shows the latest Solar Radio Flux Report courtesy of DRAO, Penticton.

Observed Flux Density67.3
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.67.9

The Solar Wind Conditions Section

ACE 24 hr Data

Below shows the latest ACE space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

24 hour ACE data

DSCOVR data

Below shows the latest DSCOVR space weather conditions courtesy of SWPC/NOAA and the latest GFZ Postdam Kp measurement. The data is processed by the University of Graz.

Latest DSCOVR data

ENLIL Simulation

Below shows the latest simulation from ENLIL courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest ENLIL Simulation

The Geomagnetic Conditions Section

NOAA kp Values

Below shows the latest Planetary K index courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Latest NOAA kp Values

Forecast Center Section

Solar Activity Monitor

Below shows the latest solar activity courtesy of SWPC/NOAA.

Solar X-rays : Status
Geomagnetic Field : Status

Latest SIDC Forecast

Below shows the latest SIDC Forecast.

SIDC URSIGRAM 90920
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Sep 2019, 1244UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Sep 2019 until 22 Sep 2019)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Sep 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2019 10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 007
---
COMMENT: Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period.
The Solar disk is spotless and X-ray flux is expected to remain at or below
background levels.
A filament in the Southern hemisphere stretching from the central meridian
towards the Eastern limb is seen to erupt in SDO/AIA 304 imagery from
around 21:00UT. Corresponding STEREO/COR2 coronagraph data indicate a
corresponding narrow CME may be Earth directed. SoHO/LASCO data do not show
any clear signs of any (partial) halo CME but they are being analysed
further in order to assess the possibility of an Earth directed component.
There were otherwise no Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.
An equatorial negative polarity coronal hole is about to cross the central
meridian.
Proton levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.
Solar wind was nominal. Solar wind speed decreased from 380 km/s to 320
km/s. Total magnetic field was around 4nT. The magnetic field phi angle was
mostly in the positive sector.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal over the next 48
hours. Afterwards the influence of the negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole is expected to increase solar wind conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K
Dourbes 0-3).
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected the next 48 hours.
---
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Sep 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 067
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008
AK WINGST : 004
ESTIMATED AP : 005
ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
BT

Latest SWPC Forecast

Below shows the latest SWPC Forecast.

---
Solar Activity
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels under a spotless solar disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
---
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 20-22 Sep.
---
Energetic Particle
---
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
---
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 20-22 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.
---
Solar Wind
---
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters persisted near background levels throughout the
period. Wind speeds began the period near 380 km/s before decreasing to
end the period at ~325 km/s. Total field averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz
component was +/-2 nT. Phi angle alternated between both a positive and
a negative orientation, spending several hours at a time in each.
---
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on
20-21 Sep. Influence from an anticipated -CH HSS is expected to begin on
22 Sep. Solar wind speed is expected to be in excess of 500 km/s with
an increase in density prior to the onset of increased speeds.
---
Geospace
---
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
---
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 20-21
Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 22 Sep due to
anticipated -CH HSS activity.

Future Observations Section

Stonyhurst Heliographic image

Below shows the latest Stonyhurst Heliographic image, composed of STEREO EUVI observations. Data courtesy of the STEREO/SECCHI mission teams, NASA/GSFC.

Stonyhurst Image

Links Section

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