SIDC Ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC Ursigram |
| SIDC code | meu |
Archive
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 09 1301 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40509 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 May 2024, 1259UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : X-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 240 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 241 / AP: 051 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 241 / AP: 130 Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at very high levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was GOES X2.3 flare which peaked at 09:13 UTC on May 09, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664. During the flare, source region (AR 3664) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with several M-class flares and chance for X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images starting around 12:48 UTC on May 08. This halo CME is associated with a M8.7 flare, which peaked at 12:04 UTC, produced by NOAA AR 3664. With its source region closer to the central meridian and with a projected speed of about 446 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool), the corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on May 11. A narrow CME (about 70 deg width) was observed on the NE limb around 19:24 UTC on May 08, which is possibly associated with a filament eruption around 18:30 UTC (below NOAA AR 3667). It has projected speed of about 440 km/s, as detected by CACTUS tool. Only a glancing blow, associated with this CME, can be expected at the Earth late on May 11 or early on May 12. Another partial halo CME was first observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 22:36 UTC on May 08. This CME is associated with a X1.0 flare, which peaked at 21:40 UTC, produced by NOAA AR 3664. It has a projected width of about 184 deg and a projected speed of about 552 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). With its source region closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth late on May 11 or early on May 12. An X2.3 flare occurred with a peak time 09:13 UTC on May 09, produced by NOAA AR 3664. Associted Type II and type IV radio emissions were detected at 09:02 UTC and 09:10 UTC, respectively, during the flaring activity. Corresponding EUV wave is also observed on SW quadrant of the Sun. The associated CME will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once thecorresponding LASCO images are availble. Coronal holes: Two coronal holes (CH) has started to cross the central meridian on May 8, with one CH spanning 0 N - 40 N (positive polarity) and another CH spanning 29 S - 43 S (negative polarity). The solar wind from these coronal holes may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on May 11. Solar wind: Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 490 km/s to 425 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 nT and 4 nT. We expect a transition to slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 170, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 08 May 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 227 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 006 ESTIMATED ISN : 155, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 08 1732 1753 1800 ////// M7.9 N 86/3664 I/3 08 1814 1836 1851 ////// M2.9 F 84/3663 II/3 08 1915 1921 1929 ////// M2.0 86/3664 08 2027 2034 2039 ////// M1.7 86/3664 08 2108 2140 0307 ////// X1.0 86/3664 I/2V/3 08 2205 2227 2312 ////// M9.8 /////// I/2V/3 09 0307 0317 0323 ////// M4.0 B 86/3664 09 0323 0332 0345 ////// M4.5 B 86/3664 09 0444 0449 0455 ////// M1.7 F 86/3664 09 0603 0613 0624 ////// M2.3 /////// 09 0830 0840 0845 ////// M2.1 /////// 09 0845 0913 0936 ////// X2.2 B 86/3664 I/2 1 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.