SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 May 07 1257 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40507
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 May 2024, 1256UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 008

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at
moderate levels with few M-class flares during the last 24 hours. The
largest reported flare was GOES M5.2 flare, which peaked at 06:16 UT on May
07, from NOAA AR 3663. During the flare, the source region (AR 3663) of the
flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic
field. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta), AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta), and AR
3668 (beta-gamma) are the magnetically complex regions which produced all
flaring activity over the past 24 hours. All three regions produced M-class
flares. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring
activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24
hours possibly with M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class
flares.

Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of a coronal mass ejections (CME),
detected at 15:36 UTC on May 05 in LASCO C2 data with a projected speed of
325 km/s and a projected width of 118 degree (as measured by Cactus tool),
shows a possible glancing blow at Earth on May 10. This CME was associated
with the eruption seen around NOAA AR 3664 and AR 3668 on the SE quadrant
of the Sun around 14:20 UT on May 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were still
under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial
(positive polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May
03. The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s to 600 km/s. The North-
South component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 10 nT. The interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 12 nT. In the next 24 hours, we
expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetism: Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were globally
and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4) due to
the continuous arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial
(positive polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May
03. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 187, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 06 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 199
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 171
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 020
AK WINGST              : 022
ESTIMATED AP           : 022
ESTIMATED ISN          : 185, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
06  2137  2148 2158 N25W42 M1.2 2N       84/3663      
06  2158  2227 2307 ////// M4.3          84/3663      
07  0041  0058 0123 N27W40 M2.6 SF       84/3663      VI/1 
07  0558  0616 0627 ////// M5.1          84/3663      
07  0818  0823 0840 S19E06 M1.3 SN       86/3664      
END

BT
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