SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2024 May 08 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40508
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 May 2024, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : X-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 207 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 207 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 032

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at very
high levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the
last 24 hours. The strongest reported flares were two GOES X1.0 flares
which peaked at 01:41 UTC and 05:09 UTC on May 08, produced by NOAA Active
Region (AR) 3663 and AR 3664, respectively. During the flares, both source
regions (AR 3663 and AR 3664) of the flares had beta-gamma-delta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Over the past 24 hours,
NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta), AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta), and AR 3668
(beta) were the magnetically complex regions which produced all M-class and
X-class flares, whereas other regions were inactive and stable. The solar
flaring activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the
next 24 hours possibly with several M-class flares and X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) has been
detected by Cactus tool at 4:12 UTC on May 08. It is associated with
M-class flares from NOAA AR 3664. It has a projected speed of about 459
km/s and a projected width of 162 degree (as measured by Cactus tool).
Further analysis is going-on to investigate the potential Earth-directed
components.

Coronal holes: Two coronal holes (CH) have started to cross the central
meridian on May 8, with one CH spanning 15 N - 40 N (positive polarity) and
another CH spanning 29 S - 43 S (negative polarity). The solar wind from
these coronal holes may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on
May 11.

Solar wind: Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar
wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 550 km/s to 450 km/s. The
North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 5 nT. The interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT. We expect a transition to slow
solar wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to
unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 160, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 07 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 204
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 014
AK WINGST              : 009
ESTIMATED AP           : 009
ESTIMATED ISN          : 181, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
07  1140  1150 1201 S18E03 M2.4 2N       86/3664      
07  1243  1254 1259 N27W53 M1.5 SF       84/3663      III/1 
07  1316  1325 1332 ////// M1.0          84/3663      /1 
07  1332  1335 1339 ////// M1.0          86/3664      36M/1I/1 
07  1621  1630 1636 ////// M8.2          84/3663      /2M/1I/136 
07  1958  2022 2034 ////// M2.1          86/3664      
07  2113  2126 2142 ////// M3.3          84/3663      
07  2142  2153 2208 ////// M3.2          84/3663      
08  0133  0141 0148 ////// X1.0 B        84/3663      
08  0216  0227 0236 ////// M3.4          ///////      
08  0319  0327 0338 ////// M1.8          ///////      II/1 
08  0437  0509 0532 ////// X1.0 F        86/3664      II/2I/2I/3    8V/2 
08  0644  0653 0703 ////// M7.1          86/3664      
08  0729  0741 0753 ////// M4.5 F        84/3663      
08  0931  0937 0942 ////// M1.8          ///////      
08  0943  0948 0956 ////// M2.1 F        84/3663      
08  1109  1122 1126 ////// M4.1          84/3663      
08  1126  1204 1217 ////// M8.6          ///////      
END

UMAGF 30503 40508 1004/ 07060 1/014 22223 32212
UMAGF 31523 40508 0000/ 07007 1/009 22222 33322
BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.