GEOALERT SIDC

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header GEOALERT SIDC
SIDC code xut

Latest issue 

:Issued: 2024 May 09 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU130
UGEOA 30512 40509 1259/ 9930/ 
13092 20092 30092 
99999
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 240 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 241 / AP: 051
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 241 / AP: 130

Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at very
high levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the
last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was GOES X2.3 flare which
peaked at 09:13 UTC on May 09, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664.
During the flare, source region (AR 3664) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring
activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the next 24
hours possibly with several M-class flares and chance for X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on
SOHO/LASCO-C2 images starting around 12:48 UTC on May 08. This halo CME is
associated with a M8.7 flare, which peaked at 12:04 UTC, produced by NOAA
AR 3664. With its source region closer to the central meridian and with a
projected speed of about 446 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool), the
corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on May 11. A narrow CME
(about 70 deg width) was observed on the NE limb around 19:24 UTC on May
08, which is possibly associated with a filament eruption around 18:30 UTC
(below NOAA AR 3667). It has projected speed of about 440 km/s, as detected
by CACTUS tool. Only a glancing blow, associated with this CME, can be
expected at the Earth late on  May 11 or early on May 12. Another partial
halo CME was first observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 22:36 UTC on May
08. This CME is associated with a X1.0 flare, which peaked at 21:40 UTC,
produced by NOAA AR 3664. It has a projected width of about 184 deg and a
projected speed of about 552 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). With
its source region closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is
expected to impact the Earth late on May 11 or early on May 12. An X2.3
flare occurred with a peak time 09:13 UTC on May 09, produced by NOAA AR
3664. Associted Type II and type IV radio emissions were detected at 09:02
UTC and 09:10 UTC, respectively, during the flaring activity. Corresponding
EUV wave is also observed on SW quadrant of the Sun. The associated CME
will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be
carried out once thecorresponding LASCO images are availble.

Coronal holes: Two coronal holes (CH) has started to cross the central
meridian on May 8, with one CH spanning 0 N - 40 N (positive polarity) and
another CH spanning 29 S - 43 S (negative polarity). The solar wind from
these coronal holes may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on
May 11.

Solar wind: Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar
wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 490 km/s to 425 km/s. The
North-South component (Bz) ranged between -3 and 3 nT. The interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between 1 nT and 4 nT. We expect a transition to slow
solar wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet (NOAA Kp 1 to
2) and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron
fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 170, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 40509 1259/ 08/// 
1//// 22273 3008/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
08  1732  1753 1800 ////// M7.9 N        86/3664      I/3 
08  1814  1836 1851 ////// M2.9 F        84/3663      II/3 
08  1915  1921 1929 ////// M2.0          86/3664      
08  2027  2034 2039 ////// M1.7          86/3664      
08  2108  2140 0307 ////// X1.0          86/3664      I/2V/3 
08  2205  2227 2312 ////// M9.8          ///////      I/2V/3 
09  0307  0317 0323 ////// M4.0 B        86/3664      
09  0323  0332 0345 ////// M4.5 B        86/3664      
09  0444  0449 0455 ////// M1.7 F        86/3664      
09  0603  0613 0624 ////// M2.3          ///////      
09  0830  0840 0845 ////// M2.1          ///////      
09  0845  0913 0936 ////// X2.2 B        86/3664      I/2    1 
END

UGEOR 30512 40509 1259/ ///// ///// 
99999
USSPS 32404 07086 12422 55029 45127 37514 56047 30119 57630 58004 43108
2/802 60002 21016 21305 61000 22508 0/101 62009 14227 2/801 63002 16517
2/801
USSPS 81202 08004 15532 37048 45527 54613 41008 43808 3/802 38139 30819
57670 43003 20015 14307 45020 13425 2/801 46004 15715 21302
UMAGF 30503 40509 1004/ 08064 1/011 22222 31112
UMAGF 31523 40509 0000/ 08003 1/008 21222 33311
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Details

The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.
Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.